We have been doing market research and tracking the trends in the mattress industry since we first established the website all those years ago. Things have been getting increasingly complicated over the past few years. The numbers for 2016 were surprising with ISPA reporting an all-time-high gross revenue and a growth of 3.4 %.

The most important factor causing this tectonic shift is the dynamic industry of “online mattresses.” It’s fair to say that before the disruption the trends in the industry were somewhat predictable with the big mattress companies dominating.

To kick of the analysis, we’ll start by taking a look at the freshest data available (sales stats for 2016 by manufacturer shale sales, channels of distribution and mattress type). Then, we’ll analyze some of the trends we’ve seen over the past year and use our statistical projection modeling to get the impression of what we might expect in the upcoming years. So let us get to it by taking a look at the sales share by company.

Last updated: February 2018

Sales share by channel of distribution

Sales share of manufacturer

Satisfaction % by mattress type

Economic implications

The last graph shown above is probably the most important indicator of where the industry is going, although it might not appear so at first glance.

Cause of the shift

Is the new business model of buying a mattress online that caused the increase in user satisfaction rate with memory foam mattresses. Most of these companies (like Casper, Leesa, Lull - https://thesleepstudies.com/lull-mattress-review/, etc.) are memory foam mattresses that can be packed and shipped efficiently.

We firmly believe that it’s the warranty terms (typically 100 nights to try the mattress out) that are causing the spike in user satisfaction percentages with these types of mattresses. The business model is simple – making the mattress so that it suits most of the population and then offering a return policy that most stores cannot match.

Note: the category of “air” includes both classic air mattresses ( https://thesleepstudies.com/best-air-mattress-reviews/) and high end products with an air chamber core (Sleep Number and their main competitor – Personal Comfort Beds have by far the highest market share in the latter category - https://thesleepstudies.com/sleep-number-competition/).

Spending trends of the average consumer

When we analyzed the market in 2015 we reached a conclusion that it plateaued. We were wrong. The substantial growth of 3.4 % in 2016 is an obvious indicator that the average consumer is spending more on a mattress (the trend is most notable in the US and southeastern Asia).

It’s not likely that the slight job market recovery has anything to do with it. The more probable cause is that an average user is encouraged to spend more by the new warranty terms that allow him to try the mattress out before committing to the purchase.

What we can expect in the short term

The trend of growth is likely to continue for at least 5 to 6 years as the new business model is yet to gain trust of the more conservative buyers. Based on he indicators that we’ve seen over the last few years we expect a steady growth of 2.5 – 3.5% per year in the 2018 – 2024 period.

The long term effects of the change

We mentioned that the new technologies and business models used in mattress manufacturing are already showing a significant impact on the mattress marketing in South Eastern Asia.

In the short term, this might not be a big deal but in terms of long-term growth it is probably one aspect of the mattress industry that should be followed with a keen eye by anyone looking to predict where the industry is going.

We’re saying that for two reasons:

With improvements in the shipping, it would not be a surprise for the mattress-in-a-box companies to turn their attention to the giant Asian market

We could also see the local mattress companies mastering the technology and materials used for the new business model